Apparently, 2017 was the safest year on record for commercial air travel — not a single passenger death. So none of this…

Of course, the minute this went public (on New Year’s Eve), planes start dropping from the sky like maple seeds autorotating to the ground in autumn. In the first three months of 2018, the Russians, Iranians and Bangladeshis have experienced commercial crashes.

Fear not. Despite the unfortunate first quarter, air travel continues to be the safest form of long-distance travel, with the odds of any one passenger, globally, being killed in a crash in the neighborhood of one in 16 million. That is, if you live in the real world. Because in the fantasy realm of Hollywood movies, your chances of experiencing catastrophic in-flight failure seem to be about one in five.

To celebrate these fictional odds, let’s toss good taste out the depressurizing cabin window and take a look at some of the better air disasters memorialized on celluloid. Then, after rating each across three criteria and running the resulting data through a propriety algorithm, let’s decide which calamity is the best.

Cast Away (2000, Dir. Robert Zemeckis)

Quick Set-Up—FedEx system engineer Chuck Nolan (Tom Hanks), fresh from proposing to his long-suffering girlfriend, finds himself plummeting towards the Pacific Ocean in a bulky Christmas sweater.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (9/10)—Now here’s a six-minute tour de force delivered with all the technical prowess we’ve come to expect from Zemeckis (Back to the Future, Forrest Gump, Death Becomes Her, Contact). What makes the scene so great (other than the incredible sound design, editing and seamless incorporation of CGI) is Zemeckis’ decision to limit the POV — we’re never outside the plane until it’s in the water. Which adds to the sense of mystery and helplessness and can’t help but ratchet the tension. Add to that a series of never-ending travails that Hanks must endure and we’re talking sublime. Sadly, the clip below only shows the last 2/3 of the event.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (7/10)—While the pilots keep their cool (recurring theme throughout this post!), Hanks looks appropriately spooked.
• Sheer Carnage (5/10)—Single plane, a couple of pilots, a scatter of packages — nothing to write home about. That said, you’ve gotta love that engine exploding in the ocean!

The Aviator (2004, Dir. Martin Scorsese)

Quick Set-Up—Billionaire germaphobe/pilot/serial womanizer Howard Hughes (Leonardo DiCaprio), out testing his newest aircraft, the XF-11, ends up crashing the plane into a swanky Beverly Hills neighborhood.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (8/10)—Scorsese isn’t one to shy from the damage inflicted upon soft flesh by hard outside forces. Think the Grand Guignol finale of Taxi Driver (bullets/knives vs. pimps) or every bout in Raging Bull (fists vs. Jake LaMotta’s face). In The Aviator, it’s Hughes he puts through the wringer, snapping his body to and fro as the plane first makes contact with rooftops, smashing his face against the plexiglass (spurting blood—vintage Scorsese!) as inertia takes its toll. Add to this a seamless combination of CGI and practical effects and you’ve got a bone-crunching, fiery crash worthy of the larger-than-life Hughes.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (4/10)—Like all good pilots, Hughes seems pretty under control as he tries to troubleshoot the engine problem. It’s only just before he goes down that fear creeps into his voice. Of course, that woman at her exploding kitchen sink looks properly freaked.
• Sheer Carnage (4/10)—Couple houses damaged? Plane on fire in back yard? He lives to bed more starlets? (Yawn.)

Fight Club (1999, Dir. David Fincher)

Quick Set-Up—Fed up with his shallow existence and quite possibly suffering from an undiagnosed mental illness, The Narrator (Edward Norton) fantasizes about midair collisions whenever he heads out on another disheartening business trip.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (8/10)—Although it last but for a few seconds, director Fincher and his special effects team do a nice job showing us the calamity that is a plane breaking apart mid-air.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (0/10)—Norton’s dissociative character emotes fascination and amusement rather than fear.
• Sheer Carnage (6/10)—A good portion of those sitting on the plane’s starboard side get sucked into the airstream, but the scene leaves us feeling somewhat unfulfilled when it cuts away mid-disaster.

Fearless (1993, Dir. Peter Weir)

Quick Set-Up—Architect and nervous flyer Max Klein (Jeff Bridges) finds himself in a pickle when, traveling back from a business meeting, his plane experiences a catastrophic loss of its hydraulic system.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (9/10)—Like Zemeckis, director Weir keeps the action inside the plane for the entirety of the crash, a POV that leaves the viewer feeling as claustrophobic and helpless as the passengers. Unlike Zemeckis, the crash isn’t accompanied by nerve-jangling sound effects but the first movement of Polish composer Henryk Górecki’s plaintive Symphony No. 3. The effect is no less powerful as we witness the plane break apart in a Midwestern cornfield.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (6/10)—This one’s a bit complicated to tabulate. Throughout the film, we see Bridges’ character as preternaturally calm. However, in the closing moments of the film, when we finally get to see the crash (while it takes place at the beginning of the film, we don’t get to see it until the closing moments), we realize his character is actually a terrified flier, the kind who assumes every bump, jolt and mechanical noise is a precursor to disaster. Ironically, when true disaster strikes, and he’s left to chew over his mortality as the plane prepares for an emergency landing, he’s suddenly visited by a calm acceptance that allows him rise to the occasion, comforting fellow passengers as he makes his way to sit next to an unaccompanied young boy.
• Sheer Carnage (10/10)—The crash, taking its cue from the famous Sioux City, IA, crash of  in 1989 United Airlines Flight 232 in 1989, doesn’t end well for a good portion of the passengers.

The Grey (2011, Dir. Joe Carnahan)

Quick Set-Up—Suicidal wolf-abator John Ottway (Liam Neeson) takes leave from the Alaskan oil rig where he works for some R&R in Anchorage. On the flight over pretty much the middle of nowhere, the plane experiences explosive decompression.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (9/10)—Check out how subtly, yet ominously, director Carnahan begins the proceedings: a distortion in the cabin monitor displaying the plane’s location, a slow dolly down the aisle revealing breath condensing above the passengers’ heads, the slightest abnormal hum coming from the engines, a moment of total silence as Ottway dreams about his wife. Then…BAM! And from here on out the sound design becomes just as important as Carnahan’s visual composition in terms of communicating terror: engines scream as they fight for lift, anxious passengers bombard the flight attendant with questions and then, suddenly, a low-end grumble from the plane’s bowels as something terrible happens to its mechanical systems. What’s even better is this clip, the only one I could find, has been dubbed into Russian or something.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (8/10)—Finally a scene where everyone, even our hero, is sweating bullets.
• Sheer Carnage (7/10)—Although we don’t see much of the crash, the smoking aftermath on the icy tundra conveys nicely how miraculous it was that anyone survived.

Alive (1993, Dir. Frank Marshall)

Quick Set-Up—Unbeknownst to an Uruguayan rugby team flying high above the Andes on the way to a match in Chile, they a) aren’t flying high enough and b) are about to become some of history’s most notorious cannibals.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (8/10)—This one’s a tough watch because it really happened. Suffice to say, Marshall brings the pain.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (9/10)—Yeah, they look pretty damn scared.
• Sheer Carnage (6/10)—Points deducted for the amount of survivors. Points added for cannibalism.

Sully (2016, Dir. Clint Eastwood)

Quick Set-Up—Captain Chesley Sullenberger (Tom Hanks) puts on a — you guessed it — master class in calm professionalism while piloting his stricken aircraft into the icy Hudson River.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (6/10)—While the scene plays out with verisimilitude, I wouldn’t exactly call it “white knuckle.” Why? Because a) we already know the happy outcome and b) the plane doesn’t do anything cool like go into an uncontrollable dive or flip upside down. Sad.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (3/10)—More of that incredibly calm pilot stuff and just-doing-my-job flight attending. At least the passengers look kinda bummed.
• Sheer Carnage (2/10)—They all lived. One point for the flight attendant who broke her leg and one for the spectacle of seeing a plane floating down the Hudson with dozens of people standing its wings.

Flight (2012, Dir. Robert Zemeckis)

Quick Set-Up—Substance abuser and commercial pilot William “Whip” Whitaker Sr., half in the bag after a late night carousing with a flight attendant, finds himself at the controls of an MD-80 in the throes of a catastrophic mechanical failure.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (9/10)—Another tour de force by director Zemeckis, who has established himself as the David Lean of plane crashes. Clocking in at nine fraught minutes, Zemeckis breaks a few times from the beloved interior POV he employed in Cast Away to show what effect Whitaker’s troubleshooting is having on the aircraft. And then we go inverted, which, although incredibly unlikely (the associated forces would probably rip the plane apart, thus I’ve subtracted a point), make the scene even more sweaty palmed. As with Cast Away, Zemeckis uses sound to increase the tension, the plane’s interior getting louder and louder (screams, engine whines, alarms, etc.) as they get closer to the ground. But then, suddenly, silence as the engines die and they’re gliding, the calm before the storm. Great stuff.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (9/10)—While Whip stays preternaturally calm, everyone around him — co-pilot, crew chief, passengers — make very clear they think this is the end.
• Sheer Carnage (5/10)—Whip’s miraculous landing manages to save 96 out of 102, which isn’t much carnage at all. Points added, however, for the wing clipping the church steeple.

Hot Shots! (1991, Dir. Jim Abrahams)

Quick Set-Up—Leland “Buzz” Harley (Bill Irwin) tries to save his co-pilot, Dominic “Mailman” Farnum, when their plane experiences engine trouble.

Crash Criteria (10-pt. scale)…

• White-Knuckle Realism (0/10)—After all the depressing carnage laid out above, I thought we needed a breather.
• Convincingly Conveyed Terror (0/10)—Pilots just doing their job!
• Sheer Carnage (2/10)—Buzz really takes one to the family jewels there, doesn’t he?

The Winner

Regardless of the point tally, I say Flight wins by a hair over Cast Away.